We Need An Exit Strategy for Iraq

“As the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down." That’s what Mr. Bush said a few weeks ago. Despite how it sounds, he wasn’t referring to a game of musical chairs. He was talking about the United States’ strategy in Iraq. Leaders on both sides of the aisle have been gently inviting the White House to explain under what specific circumstances the United States will begin to exit Iraq. The House International Relations Committee voted overwhelmingly, 32 to 9, to call on the White House to develop and submit a plan to Congress for establishing a stable government and military in Iraq that would "permit a decreased U.S. presence" there.

“Progress is being made,” Mr. Bush has said. "We are there to complete a mission, and it’s an important mission. A democratic Iraq is in the interest of the United States of America, and it’s in the interest of laying the foundation for peace. … If you give a timetable, you’re conceding too much to the enemy." He does have a point there. If you tell the insurgents we are leaving on November 3^rd, they’ll probably plan to launch a major attack against the weak Iraqi government on November 4^th.

But no one has asked Mr. Bush to pick a date for a complete withdraw of American force. Instead, the American people are looking for a sensible plan of action, with relevant markers and a reasoned military draw-down.

If having an exit strategy is so problematic, then why has Britain been making contingency plans for withdrawing its troops? And why has the United States accepted Poland's plans to withdraw most of its 1700 troops from Iraq at the beginning of next year?

I think the problem is that Mr. Bush doesn’t have a clear exit strategy. Apparently the American people don’t believe so either. Only 24 percent said they believe "President Bush and his military advisers have a clear, well-thought plan to get our troops out of Iraq," while 66 percent doubt he has such a plan. (Scripps Survey Research Center.)

And he doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to get out of Iraq. His alleged vision of a robust Iraqi democracy doesn’t seem convincing. I wager that he’s more interested in creating a pro-American government that can deter insurgents, protect American business interests, and further project American power in the region. Egypt, which is far from a democracy, is probably the model that Mr. Bush truly believes is possible in Iraq.

Americans have also caught on to another important idea: the insurgents are motivated by our presence in Iraq. So continuing the war there indefinitely fuels the insurgency and ultimately makes Americans less safe.

The arguments for continuing the war without a plan of departure are strikingly similar to the Vietnam conflict: we have to build a government there first and train a local military to protect itself from America’s enemy. We know how Vietnam worked out. It turned into America’s longest conflict. How long will it be before the American public demands a clear, defined exit strategy for Iraq? How long will it be before the Congress comes up with a plan of its own? We might have to wait for the 2006 Congressional elections to find the answers to these questions.